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11th August Market report


Russia: Russia SoEcon lowers grain harvest from 69.6 million tonnes to 68.4 million tonnes, citing lower yields in the Volga region.

French corn is rated in worst shape in 3 years, only 62% of corn was rated good- very good , lowest since 2015. A smaller crop here could further boost imports into the EU.

In the UK, the market appears to have stalled as international prices appear to have peaked, as official data does not confirm the crop reductions we have been expecting. Imports of maize and wheat continue at a pace, mostly done at a time when harvest dates were expected mid-late August. The volume of imports have surprised many and port side stores are full with many ships pending discharge, it looks very congested in the north.

The main feature in the last 24 hours is the euro, as it gets caught in the cross- hairs of the Turkish lira, which has plunged to a record low amid escalating tension over the detention in Turkey of an American pastor, with Trump ordering severe tariffs on Turkish products.. The euro has fallen markedly over concerns of the ECB about European banks ( French, Spanish and Italian banks) exposure to Turkey, this spooked emerging markets and currencies, with the rouble also in decline. The euro weakness would broadly supportive to European grain prices and has parred the weakness stemming from the US.

USDA surprised many, with US stockpiles of soya higher than expected and only minor adjustment to wheat and corn production, there has been a steady stream of data form private and small institutions dropping production globally, the USDA works in a different way with their own staff around the world and chosen government data, consequently they tend to work on hard and proven data rather than surveys, so tend to lower and increase production in a more measured way. The USDA production data was well above trade expectations, so a correction was inevitable, compounded in part by a firmer dollar seeing steep falls in Chicago.

David, Rob and Jonni

David, Rob and Jonni

MARKET REPORTS

David, Rob and Jonni

David, Rob and Jonni

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