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The next rain/snow system is developing in the far NW Plains and northern Corn Belt; precipitation coverage looks strong for everyone but the central southern Plains. Rains however continue to look solid there late in the 6-10 day period, with an active pattern remaining for the Corn Belt. Cool temps will remain as well, with signs of even more cold weather re-emerging.
Indications continue to look more beneficial for both Brazil and Argentina, with the former seeing better rains across the 6-15 day time frame to aid corn crops, and the latter experiencing drier weather during that time for harvest.
France Agri-Mer reported French soft wheat ratings unchanged this week at 78% good/excellent, with corn planting now underway at 1% complete, down from 23% a year ago.
As for the UK weather you don’t need me to tell you anything! Next week should deliver a long awaited window of opportunity.
The UK market has been moribund this week over the Easter holiday period however it continues to be dominated by feed wheat demand into the Northern compounders and industrial plants. Current feed wheat values are trading at a premium to milling consumers’ aspirations in the Midlands and South
Old crop beans trading at static levels with no appetite currently to pay premiums for spring crops.
New crop prices remain supported by slowness of plantings, however we have a well-established and sizeable winter crop.
France Agri-Mer published the April S&D and lowered the carry out stock on an historical average level of 2.66 Mt thanks to a good export pace to EU-28 and domestic consumption in animal feed. But when you consider the on farm stock unchanged at 1.2 Mt, the total French ending stock would be 3.86 Mt which is still a “huge” stock.
USDA Report Wheat
- World wheat production is increased from 758.79 to 759.75 million tonnes (a new record).
- Wheat production is raised for Morocco as it recovered from the 2016/17 drought.
- In the US wheat S+D, all elements remain unchanged except for consumption which is reduced (-0.82 at 29.58Mt) as corn is “expected to continue displacing wheat” in feed for the remainder of 2017/18. US wheat ending stocks are correspondingly increased +0.81 at 28.9Mt (Average of trade estimates 28.2 Mt)
- In the EU wheat S+D, all elements remain unchanged except for consumption (+2.15 at 130.9 Mt) and exports (-1 at 24Mt) which produced a net decrease in EU ending stocks of –1.15 at 12.97Mt.
- Elsewhere exports are increased again for Russia (+1 at 38.5Mt) and for Kazakhstan (+0.5 at 8Mt).
- World wheat consumption grows. Increases in the EU and Indonesia more than offset reductions in Iran, India and the US.
- However, increases in global wheat production (+0.96) and global beginning stocks (+2 at 254.6Mt) more than offset the increase in global wheat use (+0.63 at 743.13Mt) resulting in an increase in global wheat ending stocks of +2.33 at 271.22Mt, a record. (Average of trade es.t 268.16Mt)