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DJE Market Report 22nd September 2017


Hurricanes aside

IRI/CPC ENSO models trending towards La Niña

Dryness increasing in eastern Ukraine and western Russia

Wetness developing in northeastern Europe

At home possibly good for cultivations but not for drilling

An incredibly quiet week, most notable features

  • 1. Import/Export numbers enclosed, wheat exports in July amounting to 16,254 mt against last year of 205,005 mt in the same period. Wheat imports in the same period 155,467 mt. Despite the weakness of sterling we are importing more wheat!
  • 2. Milling premiums remain underpinned with quality issues in the south, turning premiums on its axis, with premiums into the southern mills trading at a premium to northern mills, a very unusual situation. Northern crops producing better qualities to date
  • 3. Malting premiums continue to hold steady
  • 4. Rapeseed remains at the bottom end of its range

In summary

The import/ export data, would suggest exports will not be a feature for the UK and imports into Northern Ireland, NW and NE England will be a feature for the year, we are a country that is beginning to divorce itself from the rest of European complex with the exception of rapeseed and malting barley. The rest of the world is focusing on the enormous Russian crop, which has pressured EU values and made deficit areas in the UK look attractive as import destinations. The market is behaving as though we will export very little and imports could accelerate especially if sterling begins to appreciate. This could be a case of short market nearby and long May, i.e. slow to come out now and rushes at you in May, when the UK S and D shows little opportunity to digest the UK crop as we try and move too much in a period of limited demand, therefore it’s all about sterling…

Quality grains remain steady and it feels well supported

Remain currency linked. How will Mrs. May’s Brexit proposals be received in Florence??

David, Rob and Jonni

David, Rob and Jonni

MARKET REPORTS

David, Rob and Jonni

David, Rob and Jonni

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