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Warmer and more moisture for both the US Northern and Southern Plains but colder for the Eastern SRW areas.
Russia and EU
A cold front does look to hit the Russian wheat areas but the market is not too concerned it seems. Excess rains seen for EU.
Scattered rains fell about NSW and eastern Vic yesterday. The BOM eight-day outlook continues to show rains of 10-50mm for eastern NSW, however the forecast rains largely appear to miss summer cropping regions where soils are continuing to turn drier.
London wheat retraced from yesterday’s £143.0 high falling back from the top of its current range that has been in play since end of November with the bottom at £140.0. Yesterday HMRC released November trade data showing exports of 35k vs. imports of 148k. This would indicate an export figure of around 500KMt with imports potentially around 1.8MMt.
Provisional planting survey/intentions for harvest 2018 from AHDB showed a 2% decrease in UK wheat area from 1.792mln ha to 1.748mln ha as growers switch into spring barley in the North and North West due wet harvest / autumn and increased Rapeseed acres in the East. Using 1.748mlnt and a 5 year yield average of 8.225mt/ha produces a crop of 14.410mlnt for 2018/19.
Old crop wheat remains range bound and generally stagnant. Premiums are off the highs and could see more downward pressure as consumers appear well covered for the time being. New crop is quietly firm.
Market weaker on currency and €/$ on three year high. UK market £5 weaker this week, however crude oil price rise could yet lend support to the oils complex.
New 25 year Defra Environment Plan Published
Specific references to agriculture are summarised below: