Flash Report 16/05/2012
On the day of the announcement of the England squad, is the inevitability of Rio Ferdinand being excluded just as a certainty as Sterling’s strength going nowhere anytime soon?!
The macros in our environment are going nowhere as it to be seen. The €uro problem appears to be lingering around like a bad smell, which is coinciding with the strength and power of the pound. With the euro has hit a fresh four-month low against the dollar as political uncertainty in Greece fuels speculation the country could be forced to leave the single currency. With the imbalance of the nation and the ‘Grexit’ looking ever more likely to occur this is only going to firm up our currency and it’s seemingly only matter of time of ‘implosion’.
UK wheat exports slowed in March with shipments totalled 124,916 tonnes, the second lowest monthly total so far in the 2011/12 season, down from the prior month's 212,701 tonnes. Market sources have said the wheat was bought earlier in the season when the comparative strength of U.S. corn prices prompted some animal feed makers to switch to using feed wheat. Cumulative shipments for the season-to-date were considerably higher, however, at 769,705 tonnes, more than double the 369,416 tonnes shipment in the same period in the 2010/11 season.
UK rapeseed exports in March fell slightly to 134,847 tonnes, down from the prior month's 155,440 tonnes. Rapeseed exports had been expected to rise sharply this season following a record harvest in 2011. After this ‘record’ rapeseed harvest of 2011, EU 2012 rapeseed crop is looking to fall to 18.10 mln T from the impressive 19.12 million tonnes in 2011 perhaps due poor autumn sowing weather and a bitterly cold winter which potentially damaged plants.
As many Man Utd fans (me included) are trying to look forward to the new season and forget the about the one gone – it seems that is what is occurring in the current market as the feeling is a lot more emphasis is going more and more on new crop. Is the gap between old and new too great? Will this aid the drop of old…but as the past week has proven never forget the phrase “expect the unexpected”.
On a personal note, I would like to thank everyone for resisting the temptation to calling me about the low key victory for the blue half of Manchester last Sunday.
JMH
18/05/12 -- EU grains finished higher with May 12 London
wheat ending up GBP1.00/tonne at GBP175.00/tonne, new crop Nov 12 was GBP5.00/tonne
higher to GBP158.80/tone. Nov 12 Paris wheat was up EUR8.25/tonne to EUR215.25/tonne.
On the week as a whole May 12 London wheat gained GBP2.50/tonne
whilst Nov 12 added an impressive GBP10.60/tonne to close at its highest in
more than six weeks. Nov 12 Paris wheat was EUR19.00/tonne higher on the week,
closing at it's best levels in eleven months.
The second successive sharp monthly reduction to EU-27
wheat production prospects from Strategie Grains, and talk of potentially serious
problems developing for Russian wheat unless rain arrives soon, were behind
this week's rises.
Winter kill losses in France, Germany and Poland are
said to have been heavier than realised, according to Strategie Grains. What
has survived the winter appears to be in decent shape in France at least where
FranceAgriMer now rate 67% of the wheat crop in good/excellent condition, up
from 65% a week ago.
Wheat appears to have done a exceptionally good job of
shrugging off outside market influences this week, with Brent and NYMEX crude
both slumping to their lowest levels of the year so far on the back of the ongoing
European debt crisis.
Euro weakness is seen remaining, which should at least
help to support Paris wheat. Soft wheat exports out of Rouen more than doubled
to 123,400 MT this week, helped by shipments of more that 75,000 MT to Algeria.
Chicago wheat gained more than a dollar a bushel, around
17%, this week - way outperforming corn and soybeans. Dryness concerns also
exist here, particularly in the top producing state of Kansas where the USDA
cut good/excellent ratings by eight percentage points on Monday.
18/05/12 -- Soybeans: Jul 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.05, down
33 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.88, down 18 1/2 cents; Jul 12 Soybean
Meal closed at USD417.90, down USD10.10; Jul 12 Soybean Oil closed at 50.32,
down 40 points. The end result of a very volatile week, astoundingly, is that
front month soybeans closed the week within a penny of where they began it.
Nov 12 beans were down 33 1/4 on the week, meal rose USD6.00 and oil fell 158
points. Beans seemed to lose out today to unwinding of spreads with funds selling
an estimated 7,000 soybean contracts, whilst being featured buyers of corn and
wheat. Here's a new one for you, Chinese solar panels may have been partly to
blame for some of today's declines. Yes, some newswires are reporting that today's
selling in soybeans may have been linked to a US move to suddenly introduce
a 30% import duty on Chinese solar panels, which they say are being unfairly
dumped on the US market. A Chinese Ministry spokesperson said: "The US
decision lacks fairness and China expresses its strong displeasure." China
of course is far and away the largest home for US soybean exports.
Corn: Jul 12 Corn closed at USD6.35 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents. Dec
12 Corn closed at USD5.37, up 8 3/4 cents. Funds were said to have bought around
11,000 corn contracts on the day, so due to unwinding of long soybeans/short
corn spreads. Corn also derived spillover support from soaring wheat prices
this week. For the week overall nearby corn gained 27 1/2 cents, with new crop
Dec 12 up 31 3/4 cents. Some pundits are already trying to get a US weather
market going, with calls for a warmer and drier outlook for the next ten days
being behind some of today's strength. Meanwhile Iowa, Illinois and Indiana
may be in for their third warmest May since 1895, according to T-Storm Weather.
Wheat: Jul 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.95 1/4, up 37 1/2 cents;
Jul 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.05, up 33 cents; Jul 12 MGEX Wheat closed at
USD7.92, up 24 3/4 cents. Chicago wheat jumped more than a dollar this week
to post a 17% gain compared with last Friday. Kansas wheat was also up more
than a dollar, with Minneapolis gaining over 50 cents. Funds were estimated
to have covered in around 10,000 of their short position in Chicago wheat today.
Jul 12 Chicago wheat managed to post its highest close on the weekly chart since
the first week of November. Weather concerns around the world, including on
the southern Plains, have spooked funds into closing out some of their shorts
in Chicago wheat this week.
Soybeans Collapse On Solar Panel Worries! 18/05/12 -- Soybeans: Jul 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.05, down 33 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.88, down 18 1/2 cents; Jul 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD417.90, down USD10.10; Jul 12 Soybean Oil closed at 50.32, down 40 points. The end result of a very volatile week, astoundingly, is that front month soybeans closed the week within a penny of where they began it. Nov 12 beans were down 33… Click here to read more »New Crop Paris Wheat Jumps To 11-Month Highs 18/05/12 -- EU grains finished higher with May 12 London wheat ending up GBP1.00/tonne at GBP175.00/tonne, new crop Nov 12 was GBP5.00/tonne higher to GBP158.80/tone. Nov 12 Paris wheat was up EUR8.25/tonne to EUR215.25/tonne.
On the week as a whole May 12 London wheat gained GBP2.50/tonne whilst Nov 12 added an impressive GBP10.60/tonne to close at its highest in more than six weeks. Nov 12 … Click here to read more »Sugar Beet
18/05/12 -- Got a seller with up to eight loads of "maxibeet" sugar beet pulp pellets to sell for May delivery. Price £179 deld Cheshire (zone 11). Can potentially be delivered to other areas at the appropriate haulage differential. Email me if interested: info at nogger dot co dot uk. Subject unsold.… Click here to read more »EU Rapemeal Prices 18/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are higher, playing catch up with two days of gains in Chicago soymeal after the market was closed yesterday for Ascension Day.
Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:
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May12
245.00
-1.00
… Click here to read more »Early Call On Chicago 18/05/12 -- The overnight grains were mixed with beans mostly 4-6 cents lower, corn 3-4 cents higher and wheat 3-5 cents higher. Crude oil and the dollar are both slightly weaker.
For the week so far we have beans up 28 1/4 cents, corn up 21 cents and wheat up 70 1/2 cents including the overnight market.
Wheat has led the way this week on talk of yield loss potential in Russia and Europe and a … Click here to read more »Chicago Close - Thursday 17/05/12 -- Soybeans: Jul 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.38, up 16 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.06 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents; Jul 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD428.00, up USD3.00; Jul 12 Soybean Oil closed at 50.72, up 29 points. Weekly export sales were well below trade ideas at 673,400 MT vs the 1.1-1.6 MMT expected. However almost all of that was old crop (616,256 MT) and in addition the USDA … Click here to read more »EU Wheat Gains On Crop Loss Talk 17/05/12 -- EU grains finished higher with May 12 London wheat closing up GBP1.00/tonne to GBP174.00/tonne, and Nov 12 rising GBP1.80/onne to GBP153.80/tonne. Aug 12 Paris wheat was up EUR3.75/tonne at EUR205.00/tonne and new crop Nov 12 was also up EUR3.75/tonne to EUR1207.00/tonne.
A leaked report last night suggesting that Strategie Grain would cut it's EU-27 soft wheat production estimate by… Click here to read more »
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